نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
نویسندگان
1 استادیار، گروه آینده پژوهی، دانشکده حکمرانی، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران.
2 استادیار، گروه موسیقی جهانی، دانشکده موسیقی، دانشگاه هنر ایران، تهران، ایران.
3 دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد، گروه آیندهپژوهی، دانشکده حکمرانی، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران.
چکیده
کلیدواژهها
موضوعات
عنوان مقاله [English]
نویسندگان [English]
The cultural, social, and technological transformations of recent decades have increasingly confronted the future of Iranian music with complexities and uncertainties. These changes have challenged many traditional concepts and assumptions about the audience, content, style, and structure of music. Cultural policymakers and professionals are facing new challenges that could significantly alter existing directions and patterns. The aim of this study is to identify and analyze the drivers and strategic uncertainties affecting the future of Iranian music by 2035. This research was conducted with a qualitative approach using structural analysis methods. Data were gathered through documentary studies and in-depth interviews with experts. The target population included futurists, music researchers, cultural sociologists, and experienced music professionals. In this study, 15 key factors influencing the future of Iranian music were identified and analyzed using a cross-impact matrix and the MicMac software. The results showed that five key drivers include: the expansion of online communication technologies and digital distribution, the approach of official music policymakers, innovations in music content production and distribution, transparency and efficiency of economic processes, and changes in social values and norms. Additionally, strategic uncertainties were identified, including potential changes in government policies, technological advancements such as artificial intelligence and virtual reality, shifts in the cultural preferences of future generations, and economic threats arising from global changes. This study contributes to a better understanding of the challenges ahead and helps predict potential future pathways for Iranian music. The findings of this research can serve as a basis for decision-making for policymakers and stakeholders in music, assisting them in navigating transformations and making long-term plans in this field.
کلیدواژهها [English]
)